THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
The 1996 Kurt Russell movie "Escape from L.A." might be remade as
"Escape from California." New data show record numbers of Californians
"outmigrating" to other states. The state's population is still growing,
although at a slower rate, because of in-state births and immigration
from other countries. However, recent immigrants generally have lower
incomes than citizens, thus lowering the tax base.
The figures come from a new calculator created by the Tax Foundation, a taxpayers' rights group. It's online at: interactive.taxfoundation.org.
During 2009-10, the latest period available, 406,833 Californians
migrated to other states, while 281,521 people came here. Net
outmigration: 125,312. Lost economic activity from those who left: $10.6
billion. Given that state and local taxes take about 10 percent, that
comes to about $1.6 billion in lost tax revenue – for just one year.
Let's calculate the past decade, 2000-10. During that time, 4.9
million left the state, 2.5 million came in. Net out-migration: 1.4
million. Yearly lost economic production: $146 billion. Lost tax
revenues, about $14.6 billion a year. That's almost twice the $8.5
billion Gov. Jerry Brown seeks in his tax increase on the November
ballot.
Of course, people who leave no longer use state services. But those
who left arguably were more productive Californians. If they had wanted
to subsist on welfare, they never would have departed a state with some
of the most generous benefits in the nation.
"I'd attribute it to the bad business climate," Joseph Vranich told
us; the business-location consultant heads Spectrum Location Solutions
in Irvine. Earlier this year, he calculated that 254 businesses left
California in 2011. "It seems to be at the same level in 2012," he said
of the first five months of the year. "I still have alerts coming in.
The exodus continues."
He said that, in addition to the bad economy, people have told him
they're leaving California for a number of other reasons, including "bad
regulations, traffic on the I-405, and parents don't want their kids in
California schools anymore." On national tests, California schools
perennially rank from 46th to 48th among states.
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad has been trying to lure California
businesses to his state. Commenting on that, California Gov. Jerry
Brown's spokesman, Gil Duran, quipped to the Los Angeles Times, "This is
a Republican myth that is often repeated, yet simply not true.
Reputable studies have shown that businesses are not fleeing the state
for the cold, empty and desolate hinterlands."
But Iowa's unemployment rate in April was 5.1 percent, less than half
California's 10.9 percent. And from 2000-10, the outmigration number
from the California sunshine to the Iowa corn fields was 17,575.
Mr. Duran's comment, reflecting the sentiments of Gov. Brown, shows
how insulated they are from what's really going on in California.
